Analysis of Trends in Drought with the Non-Parametric Approach in Vietnam: A Case Study in Ninh Thuan Province
Nguyen Hoang Tuan*, Truong Thanh Canh

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University of Science, VNU.HCM, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.

Abstract

A quantitative study was used in the study of the tendency to change drought indicators in Vietnam through the Ninh Thuan province case study. The research data are temperature and precipitation data of 11 stations from 1986 to 2016 inside and outside Ninh Thuan province. To do the research, the author uses a non-parametric analysis method and the drought index calculation method. Specifically, with the non-parametric method, the author uses the analysis, Mann-Kendall (MK) and Theil-Sen (Sen’s slope), and to analyze drought, the author uses the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Moisture Index (MI). Two Softwares calculated in this study are ProUCL 5.1 and MAKENSEN 1.0 by the US Environmental Protection Agency and Finnish Meteorological Institute. The calculation results show that meteorological drought will decrease in the future with areas such as Phan Rang, Song Pha, Quan The, Ba Thap tend to increase very clearly, while Tam My and Nhi Ha tend to increase very clearly short. With the agricultural drought, the average MI results increased 0.013 per year, of which Song Pha station tended to increase the highest with 0.03 per year and lower with Nhi Ha with 0.001 per year. The forecast results also show that by the end of the 21st century, the SPI tends to decrease with SPI 1 being −0.68, SPI 3 being −0.40, SPI 6 being −0.25, SPI 12 is 0.42. Along with that is the forecast that the MI index will increase 0.013 per year to 2035, the MI index is 0.93, in 2050 it is 1.13, in 2075 it will be 1.46, and by 2100 it is 1.79. Research results will be used in policymaking, environmental resources management agencies, and researchers to develop and study solutions to adapt and mitigate drought in the context of variable climate change.

Keywords

Drought, Mann-Kendall, Sen’s Slope, Non-Parametric

Tuan, N. and Canh, T. (2021) Analysis of Trends in Drought with the Non-Parametric Approach in Vietnam: A Case Study in Ninh Thuan Province. American Journal of Climate Change, 10, 51-84. doi: 10.4236/ajcc.2021.101004.

1. Introduction

Drought can be considered an expensive natural disaster in the world (Esfahanian et al., 2017); this is an uncontrollable extreme phenomenon (Correia, 2007), it affects regions and the Earth (Blain, 2012; Ding et al., 2010; Svoboda et al., 2015). Studies also show that drought impacts politics, as it can affect and spread over a region of countries in the world (UN Water, 2015b). During the current period, in the face of climate change, drought is one of the dangerous natural disasters appearing more and more in the world (Lake, 2011), without a fixed boundary (UN Water, 2015a), and an escalating phenomenon to the dangerous level of nature (Gillette, 1950; Govorushko, 2012; Prud’Homme, 2011; UN Water, 2015a; WMO, 2014), and varies with each other region (Bordi & Sutera, 2007; Brewer & Heim Jr., 2011).

Droughts have a significant impact on economic, social, and environmental activities around the world (Ding et al., 2010; Lake, 2011; Wilhite & Glantz, 1987), whose direct and indirect impacts continued (Jenkins, 2011; Jeyaseelan, 2003), drought affects livelihoods, food security, and environmental quality (Bordi & Sutera, 2007; GSA, 2006; Jenkins, 2011; Tadesse et al., 2008; Tannehill, 1947; UN Water, 2015b; UNDP, 2012; UNESCO, 2014; UNISDR, 2009; WMO, 2014). In fact, between 1970 and 2000, the rate of drought increased to 30% globally (Dai et al., 2004), causing significant damage to the world economy on 1960, drought caused up to $40 billion; in the 1980s, it reached $120 billion (Domeisen, 1995). According to statistics, today on Earth, 40% - 45% of the area is drought, where one-third of the population lives globally (Govorushko, 2012), African countries, India, North America, China, Russia (former the Soviet Union), Australia, and Western Europe are strongly affected by drought and are continually affected (Wilhite & Glantz, 1987). In Australia, the rate of drought increased by 20% annually during 1993-2006 and severely affected the country (Henry et al., 2007). Research history shows that the losses amounted to $3 billion (Abares, 2012). In Africa, drought directly affects food security and commodity prices of countries (AghaKouchak, 2014); it accounts for 20% of all-natural disasters (CRED, 2006); for example, drought killed one million people among $8 million, affected and caused the loss of 90% livestock (Allaby et al., 2003). In European countries, the total economic loss over 30 years for the EU countries is at least ?00 billion (Correia, 2007). In agricultural production, drought has made productivity, food output decreased and affected livelihoods; in Spain, grain production decreased by 42%, losing nearly ? billion (Correia, 2007). The United States caused a loss of over 12 billion USD (AghaKouchak, 2014); in California, the agricultural value fell to $50.3 billion in 2013 (Cooley et al., 2015), with more than 17,000 unemployed people (Koba, 2014), estimated average annual damage is $6 - $8 billion (Wilhite, 2000). In the United States, drought is considered a recurring natural disaster (Herweijer et al., 2007).

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