• Proposed solutions for grapes development in Ninh Thuan by Fuzzy-ANP-SWOT

    Proposed solutions for grapes development in Ninh Thuan by Fuzzy-ANP-SWOT
    Nguyen Hoang Tuan     and Truong Thanh Canh

    IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science

    Published under licence by IOP Publishing Ltd

    Abstract
    Ninh Thuan is one of the extremely dry regions in Vietnam, and choosing farming solutions in the agricultural sector is one of the top priorities. Research chooses grapes to propose solutions for development in drought because this is considered one of the local staple crops. The study used a multi-criteria decision-making method (MCDM) with a combination of Fuzzy Analytic Network Processes (Fuzzy - ANP). Through the study of published documents and surveys, the study has identified 24 factors belonging to four groups: natural, economic, social and policy and total as a SWOT matrix. Through the Fuzzy ANP model and expert assessment, the research has proposed eight strategies, and the study identified priority strategies for the sustainable development of vines in Ninh Thuan. The results are ranked as follows: WO2 (0.162), ST1 (0.148), WO1 (0.137), SO2(0.124), WT2(0.128), ST2 (0.122), WT1(0.119) and SO1 (0.059). Research results are the basis for helping local governments have more quantitative decision-making tools, thereby helping proposed solutions to be more objective and suitable to the actual situation.

     

    Content from this work may be used under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 licence. Any further distribution of this work must maintain attribution to the author(s) and the title of the work, journal citation and DOI.

  • PROPOSING SOLUTIONS TO DEVELOP SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURE TO ADAPT TO CLIMATE CHANGE USING THE T-FANP M

    PROPOSING SOLUTIONS TO DEVELOP SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURE TO ADAPT TO CLIMATE CHANGE USING THE T-FANP MODEL
    International Journal of the Analytic Hierarchy Process

    Published Mar 16, 2024
    Nguyen Hoang Tuan
    University of Science, Viet Nam National University Ho Chi Minh City, Viet Nam
    Truong Thanh Canh
    University of Science, Viet Nam National University Ho Chi Minh City, Viet Nam
    Abstract
    The aim of this study is to propose priority strategies for agricultural development amidst drought in Ninh Thuan province, Vietnam. In the context of drought, the agricultural sector faces significant challenges due to the impact of both natural and socio-economic factors. In order to conduct this research and propose effective strategies, the study utilized the SWOT analysis model via the TOWS matrix, delineating 15 strategies to pinpoint the most fitting approach for the agricultural sector. The study quantified and ranked factors within the SWOT analysis and prioritized strategies using the Fuzzy Analytic Network Process (FANP). The outcomes identified advantageous strategies for agricultural production, emphasizing the evaluation and identification of drought while focusing on market development for economically valuable agricultural products based on primary crops. The step-by-step application of these prioritized strategies aims to contribute to the sustainable development of agricultural production in Ninh Thuan province and facilitate the utilization of a multi-criteria decision-making model in resource and environmental management.

  • Application Of Multiple-Criteria Decision–Making (MCDM) For Drought Risk Mapping And Proposed Soluti

    Application Of Multiple-Criteria Decision–Making (MCDM) For Drought Risk Mapping And Proposed Solutions For Agriculture Production In Ninh Thuan
    November 2022
    Conference: GIS and Remote Sensing Applications for Environment and Resource 
    Management At: University of Science, Viet Nam National University - Ho Chi Minh city

    Authors:
    T.T. Canh
    Ho Chi Minh City University of Science
    Nguyen Hoang Tuan
    Hoa Sen University
    Abstract
    The research objective is to drought the risk of mapping in Ninh Thuan for agricultural production through multiple-criteria decision-making (MCDM). The study uses data from Ninh Thuan hydro-meteorological stations from 1986 to 2020. The research used the Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process (FAHP) and TOWS analysis to build a drought risk mapping and solutions. The research results have created maps of the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI), Moisture index (MI), Rainfall Anomaly Index (RAI), map of rainfall distribution, and the general map of drought in the period 1986 - 2016. Besides, the study has also proposed priority solutions for agricultural production in different periods through the pairs of the TOWS matrix. Research results have proved that qualitative and quantitative methods are necessary. This combination helps evaluate criteria and propose more objective solutions when performing a task. Besides, the results can be applied in many different fields in the future, although there are still some weaknesses. However, these weaknesses can be overcome when adding other techniques in the MCDM group with fuzzy logic.

  • Geographic Information System application and MDCM methodology combined with the Fuzzy Analytic Netw

    Geographic Information System application and MDCM methodology combined with the Fuzzy Analytic Network process (FANP) to build the drought-sensitive map of Ninh Thuan province.
    November 2022
    Conference: Gis And Remote Sensing Applications For Environment And Resource

    Management At: University of Science, Viet Nam National University - Ho Chi Minh city

    Authors:

    Nguyen Hoang Tuan
    Hoa Sen University
    T.T. Canh
    Ho Chi Minh City University of Science

    Abstract
    The goal is to research and identify drought-sensitive points in the Ninh Thuan area by combining the Fuzzy Analytic Network Process (FANP) and GIS with the precipitation, temperature, and vegetation indices. To study temperature index and vegetation, the author uses remote sensing image data for the period 2006 -2016 from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) on the image background of Landsat 5 and 8. Based on input data, the study has built maps of the Rainfall Anomaly Index (RAI), Standard Precipitation Index (SPI), Water supply vegetation index (WSVI), Vegetation Health Index (VHI), Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index (SAVI), and Normalized difference water index (NDWI). Through the FANP model, the research has ranked the indicators from 1 to 8 by the supper matrix. The results show that the weights of the indicates are calculated based on the FANP matrix as follows: WSVI is 19.5%, VHI is 16.3%, VCI is 15.4%, SAVI is 13.8%, NDVI is 12.2%, NDWI is 10.3%, SPI 6.9%, and RAI is 5.6%. Based on ranking, the study has been successfully built and identified areas with drought sensitivity according to 5 levels, from no drought to extreme drought. Research results are the basis for using multiple-criteria decision-making (MCDM) in drought research and related fields.

  • Nghiên cứu xu thế biến đổi và dự tính khí hậu trong tương lai cho tỉnh Ninh Thuận

    Nghiên cứu xu thế biến đổi và dự tính khí hậu trong tương lai cho tỉnh Ninh Thuận
    Tác giả
    Nguyễn Hoàng Tuấn    , Trương Thanh Cảnh
    Đơn vị công tác
    Trường ĐH Khoa học Tự nhiên, ĐHQG.HCM-VN

    Tóm tắt

    Mục tiêu của nghiên cứu là phân tích và dự tính xu thế biến đổi các yếu tố khí hậu trong tương lai của tỉnh Ninh Thuận. Phương pháp kiểm định phi tham số sẽ được sử dụng trong nghiên cứu này bằng hai phân tích Mann–Kendall và Theil–Sen. Kết quả nghiên cứu đã cho thấy nhiệt độ trung bình có xu hướng tăng với trung bình năm tăng 0,01 oC, lượng mưa trung bình năm tăng thêm 11,01 mm, độ bốc thoát hơi tiềm năng tăng 0,013 mm, và độ ẩm trung bình năm giảm 0,01%. Bên cạnh đó, kết quả dư tính xu thế so với giai đoạn nghiên cứu cho thấy đến cuối thế kỷ 21 nhiệt độ trung bình năm tăng 0,8 oC, lượng mưa tăng trên 880,8 mm, lượng bốc thoát hơi tiềm năng tăng 9,04 mm, và độ ẩm giảm 1,0%. Kết quả nghiên cứu đã đóng góp thêm vào cơ sở dữ liệu cho áp dụng kiểm định phi tham số trong lĩnh vực quản lí Tài nguyên và Môi trường. Cùng với đó, nghiên cứu đã cung cấp thêm cho địa phương một công cụ nghiên cứu về xu thế biến đổi đặc điểm khí hậu, giúp các cơ quan, tổ chức hiểu hơn về đặc điểm khí hậu để từ đó có những chiến lược, giải pháp để thích ứng và giảm nhẹ tác động của hạn hán đến kinh tế–xã hội của địa phương.

    Từ khóa
    Nhiệt độ; Lượng mưa; Độ ẩm; Bốc thoát hơi tiềm năng; Mann–Kendall; Theil–Sen.
    Trích dẫn bài báo
    Tuấn, N.H.; Cảnh, T.T. Nghiên cứu xu thế biến đổi và dự tính khí hậu trong tương lai cho tỉnh Ninh Thuận. Tạp chí Khí tượng Thủy văn 2021, 722, 23-37.

  • STUDY ON CHARACTERISTICS OF MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN NI

    STUDY ON CHARACTERISTICS OF MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE  IN NINH THUAN PROVINCE

    Nguyen Hoang Tuan, Truong Thanh Canh

    University of Science, Vietnam National University Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

    *Corresponding author: Nguyen Hoang Tuan– Email: nhtuansg@gmail.com

    Received: November 15, 2020; Revised: July 25; Accepted: August, 2021...

    ABSTRACT

    The  study  aims  to  analyze  change  characteristics  and  predict  the  maximum  and  minimum  temperature  in  Ninh  Thuan  in  climate  change.  In  this  study,  the  author  used  non-parametric statistics with, Mann-Kendall and Theil-Sen. The results show the maximum temperature decreased in  May,  July,  and  August  in  the  range  of  0.0070C  per  year  to  0.030C  per  year,  increasing  in  the  remaining months with an increasing amplitude from 0.0060C per year to 0.050C. The results with the  lowest  minimum  temperature  also  showed  that  July,  August,  and  three  months  tended  to  decrease  with  the  temperature  range  from  0.00250C  per  year  to  0.01360C  per  year,  and  the  remaining  months  increased  from  0.010C  per  year  to  0.10C  per  year.  In  addition,  the  results  of  prediction  the  trend  of  minimum  and  maximum  temperature  change  with  the  Climate  Change  scenario show that it is consistent with the low emission scenario (B1) and the RCP 4.5 scenario. The research results have contributed to supplementing the scientific basis of changing trends and predictions  in  hydrometeorology,  helping  develop  adaptation  options  and  solutions  in  climate  conditions.

    Keywords: Climate Change; Mann-Kendall; Non-parametric statistics; Theil-Sen.

  • Analysis of Trends in Drought with the Non-Parametric Approach in Vietnam: A Case Study in Ninh Thua

    Analysis of Trends in Drought with the Non-Parametric Approach in Vietnam: A Case Study in Ninh Thuan Province
    Nguyen Hoang Tuan*    , Truong Thanh Canh

    University of Science, VNU.HCM, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.
    Abstract

    A quantitative study was used in the study of the tendency to change drought indicators in Vietnam through the Ninh Thuan province case study. The research data are temperature and precipitation data of 11 stations from 1986 to 2016 inside and outside Ninh Thuan province. To do the research, the author uses a non-parametric analysis method and the drought index calculation method. Specifically, with the non-parametric method, the author uses the analysis, Mann-Kendall (MK) and Theil-Sen (Sen’s slope), and to analyze drought, the author uses the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Moisture Index (MI). Two Softwares calculated in this study are ProUCL 5.1 and MAKENSEN 1.0 by the US Environmental Protection Agency and Finnish Meteorological Institute. The calculation results show that meteorological drought will decrease in the future with areas such as Phan Rang, Song Pha, Quan The, Ba Thap tend to increase very clearly, while Tam My and Nhi Ha tend to increase very clearly short. With the agricultural drought, the average MI results increased 0.013 per year, of which Song Pha station tended to increase the highest with 0.03 per year and lower with Nhi Ha with 0.001 per year. The forecast results also show that by the end of the 21st century, the SPI tends to decrease with SPI 1 being −0.68, SPI 3 being −0.40, SPI 6 being −0.25, SPI 12 is 0.42. Along with that is the forecast that the MI index will increase 0.013 per year to 2035, the MI index is 0.93, in 2050 it is 1.13, in 2075 it will be 1.46, and by 2100 it is 1.79. Research results will be used in policymaking, environmental resources management agencies, and researchers to develop and study solutions to adapt and mitigate drought in the context of variable climate change.

  • INTEGRAL SWOT-AHP-TOWS MODEL FOR STRATEGIC AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE CONTEXT OF DROUGHT: A CAS

    INTEGRAL SWOT-AHP-TOWS MODEL FOR STRATEGIC AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE CONTEXT OF DROUGHT: A CASE STUDY IN NINH THUAN, VIETNAM
    International Journal of the Analytic Hierarchy Process

    Published May 12, 2022

    Tuan Nguyen
    Canh Truong
    VNUHCM - University of Science
    Abstract
    The study combined a qualitative analysis model and quantitative analysis to rank strategies in agricultural production in Ninh Thuan province, Vietnam. A strength, weakness, opportunity, and threat (SWOT) analysis is used to evaluate the characteristics of internal and external factors through the TOWS matrix. The research used the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) to compare and rank the influence of the criteria on agricultural production. The AHP method quantified the weights of the factors in the TOWS matrix based on a pairwise comparison of the elements. The research results show that the AHP technique can help make the decisions of policymakers easier rather than making decisions based on qualitative uncertainty. The SWOT-AHP-TOWS model provides a new approach to drought in Vietnam using a quantitative tool based on multi-criteria analysis.

  • Research the drought characteristics of Ninh Thuan province through the Rainfall Anomaly Index (RAI)

    Research the drought characteristics of Ninh Thuan province through the Rainfall Anomaly Index (RAI), Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), and the Moisture Index (MI)
    Tuan Hoang Nguyen Trương Thanh Cảnh

    VNUHCM Journal of

    Natural Sciences

    An official journal of Viet Nam National University Ho Chi Minh City, Viet Nam

    ISSN 2588-106X

    Abstract
    This article studies the drought characteristics of the Ninh Thuan province in the past through meteorological data for the period 1986-2016. The study used three main indicators to study drought, namely, the Rainfall Anomaly Index (RAI), Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), and Moisture Index (MI). Besides, the study also used non-parametric analysis to study trends and Spearman's rho to study the correlation between the indexes. The results of the study showed the occurrence of drought in the period 1986-2016 with different developments and frequencies, in which the period 1986-97 drought appeared continuously. According to RAI's drought index, the drought occurs 15 times with a frequency of severe drought of 12.5% and mild drought of 34.4%. SPI's drought index shows the drought happened 26 times with a severe drought in 1988. Drought occurred 31 times during the study period, 77% of the time, and the severe drought only occurred in 1998, according to the drought index MI. Additionally, the study also identified the trend of changes in drought indicators in the future and showed a trend of reducing drought in Ninh Thuan. The trend results show an average annual increase in RAI and MI of 0.01 and SPI of 0.08. To consolidate and evaluate the significance, the study also evaluated the correlation between indicators, and the results met the requirements with a value of > 0.84. The three indexes have Cronbach's Alpha reliability is 0.78, in which, the SPI index correlates most strongly with RAI and MI at 0.92 and 0.94, respectively. This result will help local authorities and policymakers have more methods to study future droughts and develop solutions to socio-economic development in Ninh Thuạn in the context of drought.

  • Researching trends of rainfall change in Ninh Thuan in the context of climate change by the non-para

    Researching trends of rainfall change in Ninh Thuan in the context of climate change by the non-parametric method
    Tuan Hoang Nguyen Truong Thanh Canh

    VNUHCM Journal of
    Natural Sciences
    An official journal of Viet Nam National University Ho Chi Minh City, Viet Nam
    ISSN 2588-106X

    Abstract
    The purpose of this study is to analyze the trend of precipitation change in Ninh Thuan province in the context of Climate Change. In this study, the authors used precipitation data at rain gauges with a minimum duration of 24 years and a maximum of 36 years. The main method was used in this study is the non-parametric method, namely Mann-Kendall analysis and the Theil-Sen slope. The research was conducted under the support of ProULC 5.1 and MAKESEN 1.0 software. The results showed that annual rainfall in Ninh Thuan province tended to increase in the time series of observation. Specifically, the downward trend of rainfall was mainly in March and increased from July to November. Along with that, through the index regarding the trend of increase and decrease of rainfall, the study also showed a prediction of the trend of increasing rainfall for the area. Forecast results of 2035 rainfall in Ninh Thuan the highest the increase is expected 7.7% and in 2050 is 13.8%. The study results have reflected the actual situation of rainfall change in the context of climate change with the stations having statistical significance (p <0.05). The research results are the basis for Ninh Thuan province to develop solutions to adapt and mitigate climate change in the fields of Socio-Economic life.