STUDY ON CHARACTERISTICS OF MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE  IN NINH THUAN PROVINCE

Nguyen Hoang Tuan, Truong Thanh Canh

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University of Science, Vietnam National University Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

*Corresponding author: Nguyen Hoang Tuan– Email: nhtuansg@gmail.com

Received: November 15, 2020; Revised: July 25; Accepted: August, 2021...

ABSTRACT

The  study  aims  to  analyze  change  characteristics  and  predict  the  maximum  and  minimum  temperature  in  Ninh  Thuan  in  climate  change.  In  this  study,  the  author  used  non-parametric statistics with, Mann-Kendall and Theil-Sen. The results show the maximum temperature decreased in  May,  July,  and  August  in  the  range  of  0.0070C  per  year  to  0.030C  per  year,  increasing  in  the  remaining months with an increasing amplitude from 0.0060C per year to 0.050C. The results with the  lowest  minimum  temperature  also  showed  that  July,  August,  and  three  months  tended  to  decrease  with  the  temperature  range  from  0.00250C  per  year  to  0.01360C  per  year,  and  the  remaining  months  increased  from  0.010C  per  year  to  0.10C  per  year.  In  addition,  the  results  of  prediction  the  trend  of  minimum  and  maximum  temperature  change  with  the  Climate  Change  scenario show that it is consistent with the low emission scenario (B1) and the RCP 4.5 scenario. The research results have contributed to supplementing the scientific basis of changing trends and predictions  in  hydrometeorology,  helping  develop  adaptation  options  and  solutions  in  climate  conditions.

Keywords: Climate Change; Mann-Kendall; Non-parametric statistics; Theil-Sen.

1. Introduction

Over  the  past  five  decades,  the  air  temperature  has  increased  by  about  0.70C,  and  climate  phenomena  such  as  El  Niño  and  La  Niña  have  increased  natural  disasters  in  Vietnam  (Ministry  of  Natural  Resources  and  Environment,  2008).  Based  on  the  Climate  Change  scenario  RCP  4.5  (Representative  Concentration  Pathway),  in  the  middle  of  the  21st century, the average annual maximum temperature will increase from 1.40C to 1.80C, the average annual minimum temperature nationwide has a typical increase from 1.40C to 1.60C  by  mid-century  21st  (Ministry  of  Natural  Resources and  Environment,  2016). Climate  change  is  affecting  Vietnam,  causing  enormous  loss  of  life  and  properties.  Ninh  Thuan  is  one  of  the  provinces  of  Vietnam  also  strongly  affected  by  climate  change.  Ninh  Thuan  is  considered  a  province  with  a  harsh  climate  (Nguyen  et  al.,  2012;  Ngo  et  al.,  2016),  an  area  at  risk  of  desertification,  and  severe  degradation  of  land  resources  in  Vietnam (Nguyen, 2008; Ngo et al., 2016). Identifying, evaluating, and analyzing the trend of changing climate factors is essential for Ninh Thuan and the whole country. According to  IPCC,  to  assess  climate  change,  the  study  is  based  on  observed  data  from  the  past  and  build  future  scenarios  based  on  climate  models  in  the  world  (IPCC,  2007).  Therefore,  the  study  uses  historical  climate  data  of  Ninh  Thuan province  for  the  period  1992-2016  and  uses that result to forecast the future change trend. In this study, a non-parametric approach will  be  used  to  assess  and  predict  the  trend  of  changing  mean  maximum  and  minimum  temperature in Ninh Thuan in the context of climate change.

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